Data Factories Do Not Factor In Degree Factories

While we are bombarded with the GDP and the $5 trillion target, the real or asli picture also needs to be analysed. The startling truth is that India’s per capita GDP of $2.88thousand is equivalent to that of Angola a tad above Cambodia

Data is new oil, so we are told. And it can be slippery as much as oil.

The Modi government has a fetish for data and figures, be it the numbers of Jan Dhan accounts opened, farmers covered under various schemes, the homes built and so on and so forth. Each quarter, the ministers and officials keep dishing out GST and GDP numbers and reiterating that the nation is fast moving towards becoming a $5 trillion economy.

The latest in the data churning is the revelation that India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam said, India is now poised to displace Germany from the third rank in the next 2.5 to 3 years. He said India is now a ‘four-trillion-dollar’ economy as per the IMF data. It’s only the United States, China, and Germany’s economies which are larger than India, All India Radio website reported.

The IMF has also indicated that India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The GDP of the US, the world’s largest economy, has been pegged at 30.5 trillion dollars for 2025, while that of China, the second biggest, is around 19.2 trillion dollars. So, the difference is huge and then the GDP of the third, fourth and fifth ranked countries goes down to single digits. So, our six per cent or whatever GDP growth –even if it is the world’s fastest – does mean much except for media headline management.

RBI monetary policy review April 2025 says amid uncertainties remaining high, real GDP growth for 2025-26 is now projected at 6.5 per cent, with Q1 at 6.5 per cent; Q2 at 6.7per cent; Q3 at 6.6 per cent; and Q4 at 6.3 per cent. While the risks are evenly balanced around these baseline projections, uncertainties remain high in the wake of the recent spike in global volatility. It may be noted that the growth projection for the current year has been marked down by 20 basis points relative to our earlier assessment of 6.7 per cent in the February policy. This downward revision essentially reflects the impact of global trade and policy uncertainties, which the RBI Governor had highlighted earlier. Media viewers and readers are aware that the fastest growth and the $5 trillion do not mean much to them as we continue to give free rations to over 60 per cent of the population and not to count the price rise, unemployment, and absence of salary hikes.

We discussed earlier the startling fact that close to half of the graduates that India produces are unemployable, as per India Skills Report. There is an alarming gap between education and employability. It is not just an economic concern; it’s a national emergency says Kali Prasad, Chairman of Hyderabad based EThames Business School. AI is replacing jobs. But are our graduates even ready for the jobs that exist? The era of degree-based hiring is over. Skill-based hiring is the new norm, he says. Kali Prasad, a former EY Partner with 40+ years of global consulting experience, points out that almost one crore students are graduating every year, yet we face a hiring crisis. Of the one crore graduates India produces annually,15 lakh are from engineering and medical streams. Only15 lakh pursue higher education. Around 10 lakh find employment in MNCs or large corporates. The remaining 60 lakh are either underemployed or earn as little as Rs15,000/month. We are producing degrees, not job-ready professionals, he says the skill crisis in India is its next social bomb. With over 65 per cent of Indians under the age of 35, India has demographic edge. But if the youth lack relevant skills, this dividend could become a social liability. Frustration, underemployment, and lost productivity could undermine national progress, Kali Prasad says.

Employability is the new literacy. The ability to contribute meaningfully in the workplace is as fundamental today as reading and writing, he argues. Here are some serious issues about which no one seems to be bothered. Graduates unable to clear basic aptitude, reasoning, or English tests; Companies forced to spend 3–6 months retraining new hires; Students and parents investing years and lakhs of rupees—only to face disillusionment. Kali Prasad says one could learn a few lessons from Germany, South Korea and even Vietnam. Countries like Germany and South Korea have successfully implemented dual-education models, combining classroom theory with practical apprenticeships. Vietnam, now a rising tech hub, has aligned education directly with industry demand, he says poses a valid question: Why can’t we do something like that? It is time that we started reviewing the Skill India programme: whether it is going in the right direction and if it is aligned with the industry’s needs.

While PM Narendra Modi is always keen to make India a manufacturing hub, we have the External Affairs Minister telling a foreign news TV channel that the over-emphasis of manufacturing has caused job losses in India too (apart from the US). So, what has gone wrong with the Make in India drive? I tend to ask such questions in the light of Modi saying that even a needle is imported from China. He is also upset that even Hindu god idols are Made in China. But Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has lauded the industry and the manufacturing activity saying that the country witnessed real GDP growth of 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last financial year. She said, the real GDP growth was 6.5 per cent in the financial year 2024-25. Addressing at Lakshmipat Singhania – IIM Lucknow National Leadership Awards 2025 in New Delhi she said, India is sustaining the growth and it is the fastest growing economy for four years continuously.

So, is all that being produced in India being consumed here? Or much of it is exported since 60 per cent of the population cannot afford to buy grocery for two square meals. I have come across a couple of stories that speak for themselves on the economy. The Federation of Auto Dealers Associations (FADA) said as regards the two-wheeler market, marriage-season and post-harvest demand should underpin enquiries, yet financiers are tightening customer-level credit criteria—higher CIBIL requirements and down-payment mandates—despite broader banking-system liquidity. Commercial vehicles are likely to trade flat, weighed down by a high-base effect, slower e-commerce activity and intensifying competition from electric three-wheelers; targetedOEM incentive schemes and forthcoming infrastructure projects offer some offset. Auto Industry will need to balance these event-driven tailwinds against customer-level liquidity constraints and seasonal softness to sustain momentum.

On the real estate front, the financial capital is witnessing an unsold inventory of luxury homes priced>Rs 2.5 Cr). ANAROCK data indicates that for the first time since 2022, Q1-2025 witnessed a 36 per cent yearly increase in unsold stock of luxury homes.While we are bombarded with the GDP and the $5 trillion target, the real or asli picture also needs to be analysed. The startling truth is that India’s per capita GDP of $2.88thousand is equivalent to that of Angola a tad above Cambodia. The IMF data-all in thousands - from some other countries looks much rosier than ours: Malaysia13.14, Iraq 5.67, Libya 6.8, Indonesia 5.03, Morocco 4.4, Tunisia 4.53 and Papua New Guinea 2.56). Let us not get tricked into data warfare and get down to realities of life. More importantly, get out of fool’s paradise.

(The columnist is a Mumbai-based author and independent media veteran, running websites and a YouTube channel known for his thought-provoking messaging.)